Global operational scale, onshore and offshore presence, large balance sheets, closer proximity to the largest asset owners and financial strength will prove to be advantageous for turbine OEMs and help to consolidate global market share outside of China, says Wood Mackenzie.
“Western turbine OEMs are expected to capture more than 10% of combined market share in China this year – the highest in the past decade – due to the feed-in tariff (FIT) termination,” says Shashi Barla, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “FIT phase-out in China has triggered a near-term surge in the market, with tier II players climbing this year’s rankings. China’s aim to meet the 2060 carbon-neutral goal may entice new entrants into the wind industry due to a significant increase in demand.”
Following Enercon’s financial troubles – and expected turnaround by 2023 – Nordex has emerged as the fourth contender in global markets excluding China. Vestas, currently first in global rankings, will be faced with strong competition over the coming years due to SGRE’s aggressive expansion in the offshore segment.
The top eight global wind turbines OEMs will more than double their cumulative instalments this decade. According to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, Vestas and SGRE will surpass the 200 GW mark by 2029, while GE will be 12 GW shy of that number. Additionally, Goldwind will emerge as the only Chinese OEM to breach the 100 GW mark by 2029.
This year, SGRE completed more than 15 GW of operational projects and has over 17 GW of projects under backlog. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) targets forced many turbine OEMs to chase 15+ MW turbines.
Vestas/MHI Vestas is expected to accelerate much-needed investments in next-generation 15+ MW turbines. These technologies will elevate Vestas’ offshore market share post-2025 – and lower LCOE for offshore asset owners.
GE continues to await the series production of Haliade X in 2021 for delivery to customers starting in 2022. GE will switch to a larger rotor for deliveries, which will pit them against their peers and result in a larger market share for the company towards the end of this decade.
In China, SEwind and MingYang are expected to consolidate the Chinese offshore market with 60% of combined market share over the next decade, despite increasing competition from other OEMs.