According to a forecast from MAKE Consulting, China's wind industry will install 20.4 GW of new wind by the end of the year, setting a new record.
Despite the staggering number, China will have to contend with problems concerning grid connection and curtailment. Therefore, notes MAKE, development of the grid infrastructure becomes crucial to support the country rapid wind growth.
Tariff restrictions will also impact wind development in the future as the country's onshore feed-in tariff is expected to be downgraded in the coming months along with the belated release of China's renewable portfolio standard, MAKE notes.
Despite continued problems with grid capacity, curtailment and expected tariff reductions, MAKE expects China's wind industry to continue to grow strongly over the long-term after the industry entered a gradual recovery in 2013. Record public tenders and new planned project approvals in the first half of 2014 signal that industry recovery will be in full swing by the end of 2014.
Total new installations will exceed 230 GW between 2014 and 2023, driven by sustained short- to medium-term onshore growth and faster offshore growth post 2018.
Offshore wind is a top-of-the-agenda topic for China's wind industry and, along with operations and maintenance services, China is moving toward new frontiers. These new markets present opportunities and challenges, and MAKE expects increased opportunities for overseas competitors to make a return. With substantial changes upcoming China's wind market could be very different post-2020, MAKE cautions.
Nonetheless, the overall attractiveness of China's wind industry stands out considerably on the world stage. China has one of the highest economic growth rates expected over the next decade, considerable regulatory support for wind and renewables, a huge order backlog and substantial planned grid investments.