The California Independent System Operator Corp. (California ISO) reports a 20% improvement in forecasting wind generation based on the results of a year-long forecasting competition.
The improvement represents a significant advancement in the ability of the power grid to integrate fluctuating wind power.
‘More than 3,000 MW of wind generation are connected to the transmission system right now,’ said Debi Le Vine, director of system operations, in a statement. ‘Monitoring intermittent wind production closely keeps the grid in balance and the lights on. With wind resources expected to double over the next five years or so, accurate forecasting is imperative to maximize the usage of these new green resources.’
In 2008, the ISO issued a request for bids from wind forecasting services. Three companies responded to the challenge to see which one could provide the most accurate and cost-effective forecasts over a 12-month period. Each company submitted forecasts for wind resources in three of the major wind areas in California, covering both day-ahead and hour-ahead market time frames. The winner would receive a contract to provide wind forecasts as the ISO integrates more wind power into its markets. After a statistical analysis of the results, the ISO selected AWS Truewind as the winner.
‘We're getting a more accurate forecast in time to use the information in our markets,’ said Grant Rosenblum, manager of renewable integration, in a statement. ‘That means the ISO will be better able to manage the big increase in wind power we're expecting. The more accurate our forecasts, the better our operators can balance energy supply and demand. That enhances our ability to utilize the wind resources we have now and the increases we know are coming.’