MDA EarthSat Weather has expanded its wind generation forecast product to include the Alberta Electric System Operator.
The Web-based system uses ensemble forecast methods to produce hourly forecasts for lead times of up to 10 days. In the short-term forecast, statistical techniques use wind data and power variations to develop predictive relationships between present and future wind conditions, MDA EarthSat Weather explains. In the day-ahead and longer-term forecasts, the ensemble method removes model biases, and gives weight to models according to their skill.
In verifications, correlation coefficients are near 0.9 in the day-ahead market, with mean absolute errors of less than 10% of generation capacity, according to the company.
The forecast is already available for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, the Bonneville Power Administration, PJM Interconnection, the California Independent System Operator and Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator.