Despite a slowdown from the U.S. wind market in 2013, MAKE Consulting says its long-term global growth outlook remains unchanged and expects the global wind market to continue to grow at a 4.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the 2012 to 2020 period.
Positive developments in Chinese regulation as well as better-than-expected project developments in Australia, Vietnam and Thailand have partly mitigated U.S. malaise, MAKE says, adding that it expects global wind markets to recover strongly in 2014, including the U.S., with a 21% increase in global grid-connected installations.
MAKE's long-term view on markets after 2014 remains that growth will flatten off for two years in 2015-2016 followed by a resumption of growth to 5.4% CAGR recovery in 2017-2020, as the levelized cost of energy for wind drops below grid parity.
As for the U.S. wind market, MAKE notes that order flow and construction activity has remained low due to the late extension of the production tax credit. Therefore, the firm has downgraded 2013 U.S. wind expectations by 1 GW to 2.5 GW.